Actuarial services
Value-based contract economics
Model an MA or ACO risk deal before you sign it
The engagement
Do not take on risk you have not measured.
Provider organizations are routinely asked to take financial risk on populations they have never measured, under contract mechanics they have not modeled, against projections nobody has independently checked. Some sign first and find out later.
The organizations that do well in value-based care are the ones that knew the economics before the signature.
How Ariv approaches it
Know the economics before you sign.
Ariv models the arrangement from the health plan's own claims and eligibility data: who the population is, what it costs, and how much of that cost you can realistically move. Where a benchmark or a competing projection is on the table, we rebuild it from its own methodology and reconcile the differences line by line. You go into the negotiation knowing the economics, and you structure an agreement you can deliver on.
How we work
- 01
Baseline
Baseline the population
Beneficiaries, member months, and total cost of care from the plan's own extract, forensically verified first.
- 02
Modeling
Test the deal terms
Cohorts, impactable spend, and savings scenarios under the actual contract mechanics on offer.
- 03
Adjudication
Settle the number
Contract-ready exhibits, and where models disagree, a written reconciliation of why.
Who we work with
Organizations that carry the risk.
- A value-based cardiology group weighing delegated risk
- A national kidney-care company designing a program
- An ACO deciding its participation options